SEVEN BIBLICAL ECONOMIC YEARS ?
What if, in the end, the biblical message of Joseph to Pharaoh, rather than Schumpeter, formulated economic pulsation with 7 years of fat cows followed by seven years of skinny cows?
When trying to cut down the years following the abandon of the Bretton Woods Agreements, we would arrive approximately at the following cuts :
1971-1979 : 8-year period characterised by two oil crises and monetary indecision characterised by the loss of the gold standard.
1980-1987/8 : 7-8 years of growth and qualified liberalism during the reigns of Reagan and Tatcher. The 1987 crash, which was quickly erased, probably indicated the end of this growth period.
1988-1994 : sagging period, characterised by industrial fall and the first war in Iraq.
1994-2001 : period of growth linked to promising Internet developments, closed down by the technology crash.
2001-2008 : a period of false growth, characterised by an insufficiently strong credit cut leading to the debt bubble. The biggest mistake of monetary politics (and of economists’ myopia) is not having measured globalisation and artificial growth character. Furthermore, during this period, states should have released themselves from their debts rather than transferring low tax benefits to the people. Yet Keynes wrote it : The boom, not the slump is the right time for austerity at the Treasury…. In other words : 2001-2008 expansion is likely to have been based on budgetary indiscipline.
2008-2015 : a period of recession that, as we feel, will end with inflation so as to lower the weight of public debt, after the inability of doing so by taxes. Moreover, the President of the ECB indicated it clearly : the European state providence social model is void.
And what after 2015 ? I am optimistic for the young generation breathes a creativeness and technological fluidity that will revolutionise the world.
